General News - Measles epidemic expected

COUNTRY PRACTICES CONSIDERING APPLYING TO DISPENSE SHOULD CONTACT DAVID ROBERTS NOW
BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE

Measles Epidemic Looms This Winter

A measles epidemic on a scale last seen in the 1960s will hit the UK this winter as a direct consequence of the collapse in MMR uptake, medical newspaper Pulse reports (Monday, October 4).

Computer models predict an epidemic will sweep London imminently and the rest of the country in 2005/6 as background levels of infection reach critical levels.

Lowering levels of natural immunity mean as many as 12 per cent of children and 20 per cent of adults would be hospitalised if infected.

Department of Health figures released in September showed MMR uptake among two-year-olds fell by 2 per cent in the 12 months to April, to an all-time low of 80 per cent.

The Health Protection Agency analysed data on measles epidemiology, MMR uptake and population levels of immunity. It calculated that the 'reproduction number' - the number of infectious resulting from each case - has already reached the critical watermark of 1.0 in London and will do so in the rest of the UK in 2005/6.

Dr Mary Ramsay, consultant epidemiologist at the HPA, said: 'We're predicting an epidemic from this and many places in London are already at a point where an epidemic can occur.'

London alone has 350,000 susceptible under-16 year-olds and could face an epidemic of many thousands of cases, infectious disease experts believe.

The HPA is working with directors of public health in London to formulate an emergency response plan to stop measles from spreading.

Phil Johnson, Editor of Pulse, said: 'GPs have been warning for years that the continued fall in MMR uptake would have dire consequences for patients and unfortunately it looks like those predictions will be proven correct.

'We need 95 per cent coverage among young children to be sure of preventing epidemics and in some parts of London uptake of MMR is as low as 65 per cent. So a measles epidemic was as predictable as its consequences for patients and health professionals will be serious.'

[Should not the government be swallowing its pride by al last recognising that there is great unease amongst parents about MMR? It should then carry out its duty - and GPs should also do this - by protecting all children who look to it for their care. Or is the government going to stick pig-headedly and callously to its belief until children have actually died? This is a government whose Prime Minister, after all, believes in "choice" for patients but who does not care to reveal whether his own child has had MMR or not. If the above report is to be believed then the position is now so serious that the medical profession and government should abandon their current preconceptions for the sake of all children. The time for intra-professional "stances" has past and there is only one alternative now and that is to offer the choice of single vaccines - Dr David Roberts, ed countrydoctor].

(4/10/04)